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El Niño is associated with specific changes to weather and climate worldwide. It occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to twelve months. El-Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It influences weather and storm patterns in different parts of the world, but it takes place in the context of a climate being changed by human activities.
A new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says El-Nino, which started in June 2023, has a 60% chance of persisting during March-May 2024 and an 80% chance of turning back to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in April to June 2024. La Niña is likely to develop later in the year, but the odds are currently uncertain. Of course, nothing is ever guaranteed regarding our complex Earth system, and the unpredictable effect of chaos may interrupt the expected impacts. This brings us to the next question: What grocery items are affected by El Nio in Indonesia? Canned Pineapple and Pineapple Juice Three major powerhouses of pineapple producers in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand) face challenges maintaining their crop production. Thailand has led the most decrease, from 1.21 million metric tons in 2022 to merely 0.72 million metric tons in 2023 (YoY -40.6%), followed by Indonesia and the Philippines with a decrease of around YoY -10 to -15%. This situation caused fruit pricing in March 2024 to climb up to THB13/kg from an already high level of THB12/kg in February 2024. One keynote to be highlighted is the trend of ethical, green, and sustainable pineapple products getting stronger worldwide. More and more retailers are raising awareness of social accountability and green farming practices. Great Giant Pineapple, as the leader of sustainable and fully integrated pineapple producers in Indonesia, has implemented ethical, green, and sustainable farming practices for an extended period. The company is also a voluntary member of the Rainforest Alliance. Coffee The drought caused by El-Nino further reduced coffee production in Indonesia after excessive rains dragged down the output to its lowest level in more than a decade. Hot and dry weather is already affecting more than two-thirds of the nation, including Java and parts of Sumatra, the two key coffee-producing areas. Total Indonesian coffee production in 2022 is 711,000 Metric tons, and in 2023 dropped to 582,000 Metric tons (YoY -18%). Lower coffee output in the world’s fourth largest grower, which mainly produces robusta bean, is one reason global coffee prices will climb up over 40% in 2023. In June 2023, the I-CIP fluctuated between 158.47 and 182.04 US cents/lb., the highest record. High-quality robusta is becoming more popular, which is undoubtedly driving up prices. Robusta quality is increasing as the robusta grower applies many techniques and frameworks to produce high-quality arabica, including organic practices, harvesting ripe cherries, and exploring different post-harvest processing methods like fully washed and anaerobic fermentation. In recent years, more and more brands have started to source more robusta. This is mostly to add to blends used by roasters to control cost and inflation. It also caused the narrative that single-origin coffees are “better” than blends to start to shift. More and more roasters focus on producing consistent blends and repeatable flavor profiles. Cocoa Indonesia is the third-largest cocoa producer in the world after Ivory Coast and Ghana. The country produced 650,427 metric tons in 2022 and 641,700 metric tons in 2023 (YoY -1.36%). The cocoa prices surged by 136 percent between July 2022 and February 2024. Cocoa bean prices in the commodity futures market exceeded US$10,000 per ton for the first time on March 26, 2024. As of Tuesday (2/4/2024), cocoa was traded for US$10,294 per ton. The current price is already more than three times the average global cocoa price in 2023, which is US$3,000 per ton. The poor harvests in the world’s top cocoa bean-producing countries, Ivory Coast and Ghana, where El Niño brought heavy rains last December, leading to crop damage and the spread of black pod disease. Some initiatives have been made in Indonesia through partnerships in ACTIVE (ADVANCING COCOA AGROFORESTRY TOWARDS INCOME, VALUE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY), a partnership with Mars Inc. and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to combat climate change and strengthen economic growth while reducing inequality and poverty. ACTIVE promotes evidence-based sustainable cocoa agroforestry practices to address climate change mitigation and adaptation, increase climate change resilience, and improve smallholder farmer incomes while ensuring a high-quality cocoa supply. The conclusion is Indonesia, located on the Ring of Fire, has the advantage of fertile soil and a demography bonus. The right investment and management in eco-friendly and good agricultural practices will play a greater role in the global sustainable food supply chain.